Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.467335 0.542217 0.624601 0.721875 0.833505 0.957517 1.105648
2025-05-11 0.342599 0.443707 0.566847 0.727434 0.930894 1.179632 1.506333
2025-05-18 0.271290 0.380444 0.523469 0.723711 0.995835 1.351656 1.850996
2025-05-25 0.221786 0.332178 0.485807 0.713774 1.041767 1.494617 2.164911
2025-06-01 0.186935 0.296567 0.457363 0.708311 1.087588 1.636275 2.486271
2025-06-08 0.155806 0.260555 0.421732 0.685075 1.101207 1.729060 2.742263
2025-06-15 0.145325 0.254529 0.429754 0.727723 1.217128 1.982863 3.262862
2025-06-22 0.123921 0.227153 0.399759 0.704983 1.225555 2.069325 3.528698
2025-06-29 0.106474 0.203779 0.372927 0.683262 1.231601 2.150207 3.790346
2025-07-06 0.092645 0.184730 0.350816 0.666324 1.242670 2.238565 4.070404
2025-07-13 0.085217 0.176443 0.346636 0.680399 1.308867 2.425822 4.536496
2025-07-20 0.081419 0.174576 0.353893 0.716028 1.417223 2.696031 5.172964
2025-07-27 0.075733 0.168374 0.352561 0.735971 1.499981 2.930746 5.772939
2025-08-03 0.069178 0.159486 0.344937 0.742817 1.558619 3.127034 6.321564
2025-08-10 0.062419 0.149130 0.332927 0.739077 1.595333 3.284093 6.808205
2025-08-17 0.055938 0.138413 0.318753 0.728942 1.617503 3.414061 7.252476
2025-08-24 0.050612 0.129551 0.307412 0.723369 1.648201 3.563094 7.747442
2025-08-31 0.044588 0.118121 0.288902 0.699660 1.637185 3.625243 8.068506
2025-09-07 0.043787 0.119405 0.299560 0.743174 1.778125 4.016930 9.115444
2025-09-14 0.038809 0.109368 0.282402 0.719973 1.766408 4.081429 9.466048
2025-09-21 0.034471 0.100336 0.266506 0.697811 1.754495 4.143866 9.816754
2025-09-28 0.030883 0.092770 0.253272 0.680529 1.752070 4.226737 10.219630
2025-10-05 0.029220 0.090302 0.252692 0.694889 1.827360 4.492524 11.061705